Bowen: US establishes more distinct boundaries for Israel as ceasefire concludes
Ultimately, it was a significant diplomatic success that the ceasefire endured for such an extended period. However, following a one-week break, Israel and Hamas are now confronted with their most serious military and political trials.
For Hamas, their battle is about survival. They will declare themselves undefeated as long as a Hamas fighter can fire a gun or launch a missile into Israel.
Despite its formidable military strength, Israel's mission is not straightforward.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged a powerful retribution following the violation of the border by Hamas, which resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths, predominantly Israeli civilians, on October 7.
Soon after the Israeli forces resumed their attack, the government reaffirmed its battle objectives through a WhatsApp message. It stated its intent to free the captives, eradicate Hamas, and guarantee that Gaza will never pose a threat to Israeli inhabitants again.
The focus now for Mr. Netanyahu, his political friends and foes in Israel, and Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, is understanding how it functions and what comes next. Blinken has visited Israel and the surrounding region four times since the conflict began.
Maybe Mr Blinken was aware that his effort to extend what he termed the "humanitarian pause" would not succeed.
The night prior to the renewal of hostilities, he reiterated the United States' backing for Israel's right of self-defense, and once more denounced Hamas.
Mr. Blinken reiterated his demand for Israel to adhere to international humanitarian law and war regulations, even when dealing with a terrorist organization that disregards both.
Subsequently, Mr. Blinken issued his most explicit public comment to date on how Israel should conduct the war.
This quote is valuable to delve into in detail, as it enumerates what the United States anticipates from its most trusted partner.
Mr. Blinken conveyed that this involves implementing more efficient measures to safeguard civilian lives. This includes accurately identifying and marking locations in southern and central Gaza where they can remain secure from any crossfire.
This implies preventing additional significant movement of civilians within Gaza. It also means steering clear of causing harm to vital infrastructure such as hospitals, power facilities, and water systems.
This implies that civilians who have been forced to move to the southern part of Gaza should be given the option to go back to the northern region as soon as the situation allows. Persistent internal displacement should not be tolerated.
When the conflict began, Joe Biden, the president of the United States, visited this location. He tried to express strong support for Israel, but also cautioned his partners not to let their quest for justice be clouded by anger, much like the US had experienced following the al-Qaeda attacks on September 11, 2001.
The comments from Mr. Blinken imply that Joe Biden feels that Mr. Netanyahu, who he has a strained relationship with, did not pay attention.
The objectives of Israel's conflict necessitate that its subsequent attack is directed towards Hamas in the southern part of Gaza. During its incursion into northern Gaza, it instructed Palestinian civilians to move southwards for their protection.
Although it's not as deadly as the north, where Israel has transformed much of the land into barren territory, there's no secure place in Gaza.
Several hours following the recommencement of conflicts, Palestinians residing in Rafah, situated in the extreme southern region of Gaza bordering Egypt, were losing their lives in Israeli aerial attacks.
Israel cannot assert that they have eradicated Hamas unless they dismantle its foundation in the southern regions, where they suspect Yahya Sinwar and other leaders are hiding in underground tunnels beneath the civilian populace, accompanied by an unknown quantity of combatants.
Should Israel employ similar strategies as those used in north Gaza, the death toll among civilians could rise by thousands. Antonio Guterres, the UN secretary-general, has already described the situation in Gaza as a "monumental humanitarian disaster".
Egypt, among others, is concerned that severe military aggression towards nearly two million civilians in the south might result in thousands of frantic individuals crossing the border into the Sinai Desert. This could potentially trigger a new Palestinian refugee crisis, which would pose another risky and desperate situation for the Middle East.
Suppose Israel has assured the US that Palestinian civilians will be directed to certain safe zones. In the intense conflict that Israel is engaged in, which involves tanks, air strikes, and heavy artillery, it's more likely to envision how this strategy could falter, instead of how it could work.
Should Israel adopt less intense counter-insurgency strategies, allowing soldiers to operate without extensive protection, it's highly probable that the nation would experience a significant increase in combat losses compared to what they've encountered thus far.
The upcoming actions of Israel also represent a crucial juncture for Joe Biden, as he confronts severe backlash over his backing of Israel from the liberal faction within his own Democratic party.
Antony Blinken, Biden's top diplomat, has publicly expressed the US's expectations of how Israel should combat Hamas. If Israel's actions result in the death of a significant number of Palestinian civilians as seen in the north, disregarding Biden's expressed wishes, then the US president will need to evaluate whether he can maintain the high level of support for Israel. This includes not only on the combat field, but also within the United Nations Security Council where the US has repeatedly utilized its veto power to shield Israel.
Hamas hasn't been defeated. The hostages it still holds serve as a potent tool that it can utilize to interfere with Israel's military efforts and to further increase mental stress on the civilian population. Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, along with his team, will also attempt to take advantage of any situations that arise if Israel's military leaders heed American advice to reduce their use of force.
The conflict has entered a different stage, as has the entire area. Numerous Palestinians and Israelis, even those distanced from the skirmishes in Gaza, appear overwhelmed by the burden of a precarious and unpredictable future.
Additional information on the Israel-Gaza conflict
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Further details on this matter
Bowen: Without evidence of Hamas HQ at al-Shifa, there will be increased calls for a ceasefire.
Bowen: After a month of conflict between Israel and Gaza, five new circumstances have emerged.
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