College Football Playoff, bowl predictions 2023: Paths the nine remaining contenders must follow

The math isn’t that difficult. The list of College Football Playoff contenders is down to nine this last week of the regular season. That’s the number of Power Five programs with one or no losses. That’s not exclusionary. Last year at this time, there were only seven teams in contention.

This year, five of the nine likely control their own destiny: Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Washington and Florida State. Then you have two with CFP experience (Oregon, Alabama) and two would-be newbies to the CFP (Texas, Louisville). In the previous nine years of the CFP, only 14 schools (filling 36 total spots) have played for the national championship.

That’s exclusionary, but it won’t be for long; it gets easier next year in the expanded 12-team playoff. For now, here are the ground rules:

• Being undefeated gets you in. An undefeated Power Five conference champion has never been left out.
• A non-conference champion must “unequivocally” be one of the four best teams.
• The same goes for a second team from a conference already in the field.
• Two losses? You’re all but out. It’s happened once in the BCS era (LSU, 2007) and that was a genetic mutation where everything just fell right for the Tigers.
• The CFP Selection Committee can do whatever it wants.

For example, strength of schedule? That phrase is listed four times in the committee’s selection protocol, yet a single metric or number of metrics to measure schedule strength is never listed. That leaves the selection process up to the imagination of each committee member.

Satisfied?

Within the nine remaining contenders is subset of a top three: Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State can conceivably “afford” a loss and still stay in the top four. A close loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game would have to give pause for the Bulldogs.

Meanwhile, Ohio State and Michigan have ruled the Big Ten as if Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler were still roaming the sidelines. The league is admittedly down this year, and the two schools have played a total of three ranked teams to this point. However, a combined point differential of 590 has to mean something.

No conference has ever placed multiple teams in the field over consecutive seasons. It could happen this year out of the Big Ten. It could happen for the third consecutive year overall (SEC in 2021, Big Ten in 2022).

The nine have nestled in a nice, tidy pod since Louisville lost by 17 at Pittsburgh on Oct. 14. The Cardinals were bordering on afterthought at that point until Tennessee, Oklahoma, Missouri and Ole Miss eventually took their second losses.

The nine contenders enter Rivalry Week with a combined winning streak of 108 games. That will change, of course, as at least six of the nine are assured of playing other another before Selection Sunday.

The most undefeated Power Five conference teams we can have is four heading into the CFP. Ah, but there is an Armageddon scenario where eight teams are all 12-1.

College Football Playoff contenders

No. 1 Georgia (11-0): Already in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. Win out over Georgia Tech and Bama, and UGA is back in the playoff. As mentioned, the Dawgs are so firmly entrenched it’s possible they could lose once and still get in. Amazingly, the “better” loss would be this week to Georgia Tech. The Dawgs could lose to the Yellowjackets and still go on and win the SEC title for a third straight year. The SEC champion has not been left out of the BCS/CFP since 2005. Losing to Georgia Tech, though, could force the committee to think twice.

It gets complicated in a different way if Georgia loses to Alabama. A second team from a conference has been in the BCS/CFP three times since 2011. However, in general, the committee favors conference champions over teams that lose those games. Things get sticky if Florida State and Washington, plus the Ohio State-Michigan winner, finish undefeated. That would account for three of the four spots with a one-loss Georgia competing against Alabama, the Ohio State-Michigan loser and possibly Texas as a one-loss Big 12 champion. In that scenario, Texas might get the fourth spot.

No. 2 Ohio State (11-0): Beat Michigan and Iowa, and the Buckeyes are in the field. As with the Wolverines, a loss to the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game probably dooms OSU. A hotly contested loss to Michigan might make it impossible for the committee to ignore Ohio State. It all depends what happens around OSU. If Georgia, Washington, Texas and Florida State all win, there likely won’t be a spot for a the Buckeyes if they lose to the Wolverines. If Georgia, Washington and Florida State all go undefeated, Ohio State couldn’t get in without winning the Big Ten. Basically, the more one-loss teams left among those nine benefits the Ohio State-Michigan loser. 

No. 3 Michigan (11-0): Beat Ohio State and Iowa, and the Wolverines are in the field. As with the Buckeyes, a loss to the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game probably dooms UM. If there is a loss coming, it’s probably better for the Big Ten that Michigan beats Ohio State given the Buckeyes have consistently been ranked ahead of the Wolverines by the committee. On the surface, that gives the league the best chance to get two in. Actually, let’s make it easy for the embattled Big Ten. If Michigan and Ohio State take it to three overtimes, the winner is in at 13-0 with the loser looking enticing at 11-1 as a non-champion.

No. 4 Washington (11-0): Beat Washington State and presumably Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game, and the Huskies become the first Pac-12 team to enter the CFP in seven years. Anything short of that puts Washington in peril. The committee finally valued Washington’s strength of victories placing it No. 4 in the rankings this week ahead of Florida State. A loss to Wazzu would certainly eliminate the Huskies. A loss to Oregon would be more respectable and tie the season series 1-1, but the competition for the Huskies could conceivably be one-loss teams from the Big Ten (non-champion), ACC (if Louisville wins) and SEC (if Alabama wins); both Big Ten teams and Georgia are already ranked ahead of Washington.

No. 5 Florida State (11-0): The end of Jordan Travis’ college career diminishes FSU’s chances to win out. The injury changes the Seminoles’ outlook. but not their reality. Florida State cannot afford to lose. The Noles face one of the toughest paths of any of the remaining contenders. FSU must first win at Florida in The Swamp (at night) before beating Louisville in the ACC Championship Game. Now, insert backup Tate Rodemaker into the equation. He seems capable, but Travis was competing for a Heisman Trophy.

No. 6 Oregon (10-1): With one loss already, there is only one path for the Ducks. Oregon must beat Oregon State and Washington to get in. That creates a bookend CFP experience. The Ducks were in the first CFP and would be in the last Football Four before it expands. Since the Washington loss, Oregon has looked like it belongs in the top four, perhaps ahead of the Huskies. The Ducks will have a chance to prove it next Friday in Las Vegas. As is stands, they also have the toughest remaining road. Oregon is the only team on this list that has to defeat two teams in the top 16 of the CFP Rankings to get into the playoff.

No. 7 Texas (10-1): Leaning toward long-shot status at the moment. The Longhorns haven’t so much as clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. There are three teams below them at the moment who have a shot as well. Here’s the tiebreaker with only Oklahoma State controlling its own destiny if Texas beats Texas Tech. Nevertheless, the ‘Horns have to win out against the Red Raiders and either Oklahoma State, Oklahoma or Kansas State. OU and KSU would be rematches. Texas still has that Alabama win in its hip pocket. We’ve already told you how that could make brains hurt inside the committee room. 

No. 8 Alabama (10-1): Another one of the one-loss candidates with no wriggle room. Beat Auburn and Georgia, and the Crimson Tide are likely in the playoff. Remember, no SEC champion has been left out since 2005. Alabama could conceivably be in competition for three spots with other 12-1 conference champions: Oregon, Texas and Louisville. If the decision comes down to Texas and Bama, the committee will have to weigh a regular-season head-to-head road win for the ‘Horns against the Tide clearly improving throughout the season and taking down the top team in their rankings on the final day of the season in the SEC title game.

No. 9 Louisville (10-1): Long shot. First comes beating Kentucky this week and Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. Then, the Cardinals must hope the Dawgs win out, the Big Ten champion is undefeated and Oregon loses to Oregon State but beats Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game. In that scenario, the SEC and Big Ten champions are in. The only viable Power Five conference champions left to fill the bracket would be Louisville and Texas. And if the ‘Horns lose, a one-loss non-champion or the two-loss Ducks would take the final spot. When you consider it, perhaps the Cardinals aren’t a long shot. 

The Armageddon Scenario

As a bonus — really, mostly for giggles — we’ve also done a deep dive on a potential Armageddon Scenario where no undefeated Power Five teams remain once all is said and done. Here’s how it could go down.

• Alabama wins out and takes the SEC. The Tide and Dawgs both finish 12-1.
• The Ohio State-Michigan winner drops the Big Ten title to Iowa (don’t laugh), finishing with the best record in the league (12-1) as a non-champion. The other finishes 11-1.
• Oregon wins out and takes the Pac-12. The Ducks and Huskies both finish 12-1.
• Texas wins out and takes the Big 12 finishing 12-1.
• Louisville wins out and takes the ACC.The Cardinals and ‘Noles both finish 12-1. 

That creates a situation where the committee must pit four conference champions against four non-champions from the SEC (Georgia), Pac-12 (Washington), Big Ten (Ohio State/Michigan) and ACC (Florida State) who would have just lost their first games on the season’s final weekend. 

In that scenario, we would be looking at these one-loss resumes.

* Strength of schedule as it currently stands via SportsSource Analytics | Ranked records calculated through above scenarios

Who ya got?