Bowen: US establishes more definite boundaries for Israel as ceasefire concludes
Ultimately, it was a triumph in diplomacy that the ceasefire persisted for the duration it did. Now, post a week-long break, Israel and Hamas confront their most significant military and political hurdles.
For Hamas, it's a battle for existence. As long as a Hamas fighter can fire a bullet or send a rocket into Israel, they will assert that they have not been defeated.
Despite having immense military strength, Israel's mission is more intricate.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate strongly after Hamas crossed the border and caused the deaths of approximately 1,200 individuals, the vast majority being Israeli civilians, on October 7.
Shortly after the Israeli forces resumed their attacks, the government reaffirmed its war objectives through a WhatsApp message: "Freeing the captives, eradicating Hamas, and making sure that Gaza never poses a threat to the inhabitants of Israel again."
Understanding the process and subsequent outcomes has become the primary concern for Mr. Netanyahu, his political friends and foes in Israel, and Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, who has visited Israel and its surrounding region four times since the conflict began.
Maybe Mr Blinken was aware that his effort to extend what he referred to as the "humanitarian pause" would not succeed.
The night prior to the continuation of the conflict, he reiterated the US's backing of Israel's ability to protect itself, and yet again denounced Hamas.
Mr Blinken reiterated his demand that Israel should adhere to international humanitarian law and the laws of war, even when dealing with a terrorist organization that disregards both.
Subsequently, Mr. Blinken issued his most candid public remark to date regarding how Israel should conduct the war.
This quote is valuable to mention in its entirety, as it serves as a rundown of what the US anticipates from its most trusted partner.
Mr. Blinken expressed that this involves implementing more efficient measures to safeguard civilian lives. This includes specifically identifying safe zones in the southern and central parts of Gaza where civilians can be secure and away from potential conflict zones.
This implies preventing additional substantial movement of civilians within Gaza. It entails averting harm to essential facilities necessary for survival, such as hospitals, power plants, and water systems.
This implies providing non-military individuals who have been relocated to the southern part of Gaza with the option to move back to the northern region as soon as the circumstances allow. It's crucial that there's no lasting internal dislocation.
When the conflict began, US president Joe Biden arrived here. He aimed to show strong support and affection for Israel, but also cautioned his allies not to let anger cloud their judgement in their pursuit of justice. He drew parallels with how the US had reacted following the al-Qaeda attacks on September 11, 2001.
The comments made by Mr. Blinken imply that Joe Biden thinks Mr. Netanyahu, despite their strained relationship, has not been receptive.
The objectives of Israel's conflict necessitate that the subsequent stage of its attack targets Hamas in the southern part of Gaza. During its incursion into northern Gaza, it advised Palestinian civilians to move southwards for their personal protection.
Though not as deadly as the north, which has largely been transformed into a barren landscape by Israel, no place in Gaza is secure.
A couple of hours following the resumption of conflicts, Palestinians in Rafah, positioned at the extreme south of Gaza along the Egyptian border, were victims of Israeli aerial attacks.
Israel can't assert that they have eradicated Hamas unless they've demolished its base in the southern region. Here, they suspect Yahya Sinwar and other leaders are hiding in underground tunnels beneath civilians, together with an unknown quantity of combatants.
If Israel decides to employ the same strategies used in northern Gaza, it could result in the death of thousands more innocent people. The UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, has already described the situation in Gaza as a massive humanitarian disaster.
Egypt and other nations are worried that intense military aggression towards nearly two million civilians in the south might result in thousands of desperate individuals crossing the border into the Sinai Desert. This could potentially lead to a fresh Palestinian refugee issue, further escalating the already precarious situation in the Middle East.
Suppose Israel has assured the US that Palestinian civilians would be guided to particular regions to ensure their safety. Given the intense warfare Israel is engaged in, deploying tanks, air raids, and heavy artillery, it's easier to envision the potential failures of this plan than the chances of its success.
Should Israel decide to adopt less intense counter-insurgency strategies, which would involve troops operating without extensive protection, it could potentially face a significant increase in combat-related injuries compared to its current rate.
The forthcoming actions of Israel are equally a critical juncture for Joe Biden, who is confronting severe backlash for his pro-Israel stance from the liberal faction within his Democratic party.
Biden's main foreign affairs advisor, Antony Blinken, has openly expressed the US's stance on how Israel should combat Hamas. If Israel's actions lead to a similar number of Palestinian civilian casualties as previously seen in the north, contrary to Biden's expressed wishes, the US president will be faced with the decision of whether or not he can maintain the high level of support for Israel, both militarily and within the United Nations Security Council. The US has frequently utilized its veto power in the Council to shield Israel.
Hamas has not been defeated. They still hold hostages, which provides them with a significant control tool that they can employ to hinder Israel's military operations and to further exert emotional stress on domestic territories. Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, along with his followers will also seek to capitalize on any chances that arise should Israel's military leaders decide to comply with America's directive to decrease their use of force.
The conflict has entered a different stage, as has the entire area. Numerous Palestinians and Israelis, even those distant from the skirmishes in Gaza, appear overwhelmed by the burden of a risky and unpredictable future.
Further information on the Israel-Gaza conflict
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Bowen: The calls for a ceasefire will increase if evidence of Hamas headquarters at al-Shifa isn't provided.
Bowen: After a month of conflict between Israel and Gaza, five new circumstances have emerged.
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