Venezuela’s Controversial Referendum: A Vote on Claiming Guyana’s Oil-Rich Essequibo Region

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Essequibo: Venezuela casts votes on its claim to an oil area controlled by Guyana

On Sunday, a referendum is taking place in Venezuela which has significantly increased the strain between the South American nation and its neighboring country, Guyana.

The Venezuelan government has initiated a referendum to gauge public backing for its longstanding claim to a disputed, oil-abundant expanse of jungle that is presently managed by Guyana.

The area known as Essequibo, which spans 159,500 square kilometers or 61,600 square miles, accounts for two-thirds of the land that Guyana presently governs. Out of Guyana's total population of 800,000, 125,000 inhabitants reside in this region.

The conflict regarding the region has been persisting for over a hundred years.

In 1899, a global arbitration panel granted the region to Britain, who was the reigning colonial force in Guyana, formerly referred to as British Guiana.

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However, consecutive Venezuelan administrations over the previous six decades have criticized this verdict as unjust.

In 1966, the United Kingdom and Venezuela agreed to form a committee, termed the Geneva Agreement, composed of delegates from Guyana and Venezuela. This pact was finalized the same year Guyana gained independence from the UK, and its purpose was to reexamine the land conflict between the two countries.

Despite nearly sixty years having gone by, there still hasn't been any resolution.

The conflict ignited in 2015 when American oil behemoth ExxonMobil found oil in the offshore waters of Essequibo.

In 2018, Guyana presented its case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), following approval from the United Nations' Secretary-General.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ), located in The Hague, Netherlands, serves as the main court of the United Nations. One of its key functions is to settle legal conflicts between nations.

The process for the ICJ to deliver verdicts can span several years. Typically, the initial phase in most situations involves determining if it possesses jurisdiction, which means assessing if it has the legal power to pass judgment on a specific conflict.

In 2020, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) declared that it had the authority to adjudicate the disagreement. However, the court has not yet made a determination regarding the validity of the case, specifically whether the 1899 arbitration decision that assigned Essequibo to Guyana is valid.

Venezuela has yet to acknowledge the authority of the ICJ, but has consistently participated in the court's proceedings.

The situation escalated when Guyana's government organized a bidding event this year in September, where oil firms competed for exploration permits in Essequibo waters.

This action, along with a major new oil find in those waters just over a month ago, has intensified the strain on the Venezuelan administration.

The country of Venezuela boasts the highest confirmed oil reserves globally. However, in 2019, the United States implemented comprehensive restrictions on the oil industry of this South American nation.

The administration in Venezuela, under the leadership of President Nicolás Maduro since 2013, is facing global demands to permit unbiased and democratic elections in 2024.

Recently, the United States relaxed the restrictions it had placed on Venezuela's petroleum sector as a trade-off for the government's decision to rescind a prohibition on the primary opposition leader, María Corina Machado.

Nonetheless, the prohibition on Ms Machado's political candidacy continues to be enforced.

Numerous experts view the Essequibo vote as a strategic move by President Maduro to stir up patriotic enthusiasm and divert attention from demands for transparent and unbiased elections.

Even though the referendum is merely advisory and carries no legal force beyond Venezuela, Guyana has denounced it as a hostile effort towards "annexation".

Voters in Venezuela are requested to respond with either a "Yes" or "No" to five queries.

The initial pair of inquiries essentially seek to determine if Venezuelans back their nation's contention for the Essequibo area, predicated on Venezuelan claims – the supposed illegitimacy of the 1899 arbitration judgment and the legitimacy of the 1966 Geneva Accord.

The third query solicits voters' agreement on the Maduro administration's denial of the ICJ's authority in the lawsuit.

This question sparks debate, as numerous Venezuelan opposition figures and analysts argue that disregarding the ICJ weakens Venezuela's stance.

The fourth question inquires whether Venezuelans "consent to resist legally" Guyana's "one-sided" exploitation of the seawaters near Essequibo – this pertains to Guyana granting oil permits for this maritime region.

Skeptics have raised doubts about the phrase "by all means" in this query, pondering if it could encompass the use of armed force.

The fifth query seeks endorsement for the establishment of the "Guayana Esequiba state" and its integration into the Venezuelan geographical layout. This wording is specifically protested by Guyana, who argue that this equates to an effective "seizure" of land they currently manage.

There's a degree of apprehension among some viewers regarding the actions the Maduro administration might take if, as largely predicted, the referendum results reveal strong support for the five queries.

Venezuela's military has revealed plans to build a runway near its existing border with Guyana.

Security specialist aligned with the opposition, Rocío San Miguel, cautioned that the government was exploiting the Essequibo matter after the triumph of the opposition parties' primary in October, which witnessed over 2.4 million individuals participating.

"According to Ms San Miguel, there is nothing more effective in distracting people than introducing a compelling, appealing topic that resonates with national pride."

She cautioned that if any of the Essequibo referendum queries get approved, it could endow the Maduro regime with absurd levels of authority, possibly even leading to the commencement of military aggression.

Bharrat Jagdeo, the Vice-President of Guyana, has openly cautioned Venezuela that any hostile behaviors will not be overlooked. He also noted that his administration has garnered substantial global backing.

In late November, President Irfaan Ali of Guyana, along with military leaders, paid a visit to the Essequibo region. Their aim was to provide reassurance to the local residents. President Ali expressed his dedication to resolving the border conflict in a peaceful manner.

The ICJ also instructed Venezuela on Friday to avoid any definitive measures that might change the current situation in the Essequibo.

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