The BBC has discovered that the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the nation organizing the COP28 climate discussions focused on reducing fossil fuel emissions, is significantly increasing its own oil production.
Analysts, highly regarded for their global expertise in oil market intelligence, predict that Adnoc, the state oil company of the United Arab Emirates, could increase its drilling by 42% by the year 2030.
From 2023 to 2050, Saudi Arabia is the only country projected to have a higher production rate
Adnoc states that estimates indicate potential oil production capability, not the real production.
It mentioned that it has previously detailed plans to increase its production capability by 7% in the coming four years.
The company stated that it is generally agreed that oil and gas will still be required in the coming decades. However, they are making efforts to make their operations more environmentally friendly and this includes branching out into the renewable energy sector.
Additional information about the COP28 climate conference
The primary emphasis of COP28 is the gradual reduction or complete elimination of fossil fuels such as oil and gas.
The head of the COP and the CEO of Adnoc is Sultan al-Jaber.
The recent evaluation of data from the oil sector indicates that Adnoc is currently undergoing swift growth.
Rystad Energy provides the data on Adnoc, and is recognized for its reliable and widely utilized oil market insights by international organizations like the International Energy Agency and various fossil fuel corporations.
Rystad utilizes corporate documents, governmental data, and scholarly studies to forecast future oil and gas output.
Global Witness activists subsequently utilized this information to compile a ranking of leading oil producers from the present until 2050.
The UAE secured a position just after Saudi Arabia and presently holds the 12th spot globally.
Rystad stated that the 42% boost in production within this decade will elevate the output from barely more than a billion barrels in 2023 to nearly 1.5 billion barrels by the year 2030.
The information indicates that this vigorous growth is predicted to persist until the 2030s, after which production is likely to begin diminishing in the 2040s.
It is projected that by 2050, Adnoc's annual oil production will drop to nearly 850 million barrels, a notable decrease from their current production of a billion barrels.
It is anticipated that global production will decline by the middle of the century.
Bill Hare, an experienced scientist at Climate Analytics, stated that the astonishing increase in Adnoc's anticipated production goes entirely against our understanding of what needs to be done to keep global warming below 1.5C.
"He pointed out that this contradicts the COP president's own pledge to make 1.5C the guiding principle of the climate talks," he further stated.
The quantity of oil and gas would jeopardize the possibility of restricting temperature increase to 1.5C.
Even with its total production, Adnoc would still be overshadowed by Saudi Arabia's national producer, Aramco, projected to produce 101 billion barrels by 2050.
Nonetheless, it would considerably surpass the combined total of all five "supermajors" – Shell, BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies, and ConocoPhillips.
The study indicates that by 2050, Adnoc's escalated production will result in more than 14 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions. Specialists assert that this accounts for more than 6% of the global allowance to maintain temperatures below 1.5C.
The leader of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, stated that the growth of Adnoc is inconsistent with maintaining global temperatures under hazardous levels.
"No fossil fuel corporation can declare 'I plan to boost my production by x million barrels of oil while also adhering to the Paris climate agreement'," he stated.
"They both can't function simultaneously," he informed BBC News.
Adnoc stated that the assessment did not differentiate between the potential for production and the actual production.
Businesses frequently possess the ability to generate significantly more oil. However, due to market saturation or constraints imposed by the OPEC cartel, they might not fully utilize this potential.
An Adnoc representative affirmed that their production capacity is set to expand from approximately 4.65 million barrels daily to five million barrels daily by 2027. This indicates a 7% growth in production capacity.
It's crucial to highlight that this refers to capacity, not necessarily output. Moreover, it does not represent Adnoc's proportion of production.
Adnoc emphasized that all energy transition models, including those proposed by the IEA and Rystad, recognize the necessity for a certain amount of oil and gas to fulfill future energy requirements.
Our production involves some of the globe's lowest carbon-intensive oil and gas. We're planning to cut down our carbon intensity by a quarter by 2030. This will be initiated by investing $15bn to decrease carbon in our operations and hasten the development of future energy sources such as hydrogen, geothermal, and renewable energies.
Global Witness states that they examined "anticipated yearly rates of hydrocarbon extraction," indicating actual production, not the potential to produce.
It is claimed that this data can be openly accessed from Adnoc.
These results indicate that regardless of the results of COP28, Adnoc intends to outperform almost all other global operators in oil production and significantly boost its output. This goes against the scientific agreement that Sultan al-Jaber is supposed to use as a basis for discussions in Dubai," stated Patrick Galey of Global Witness.
The future of oil production and demand is filled with uncertainties that could potentially impact market supplies. Nonetheless, environmentalist political figures argue that we should no longer seek out new oil drilling prospects.
As the COP President and CEO of a fossil company, Sultan al-Jaber should lead by example and make a commitment to alter the future strategies of Adnoc, according to Bas Eickhout, a representative of the European Parliament's Green Party.
His personal integrity is on the line, and it will also decide whether the UAE's COP Presidency thrives or falls short.
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