The BBC has discovered that the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which is set to host the COP28 climate discussions focused on reducing carbon emissions from fossil fuels, is significantly increasing its own oil output.
Analysts, renowned for their expertise in global oil market intelligence, suggest that Adnoc, the state oil company of the United Arab Emirates, could potentially increase its drilling operations by 42% by the year 2030.
From 2023 to 2050, Saudi Arabia is anticipated to be the only country increasing its production.
Adnoc claims that forecasts indicate production potential for oil, not the actual output.
It announced that it has previously outlined its intentions to increase its production capacity by 7% in the coming four years.
The company stated that it is generally agreed that oil and gas will still be necessary in the coming decades. Therefore, they are modifying their operations to be more environmentally conscious, which includes diversification into renewable energy sources.
Additional details about the COP28 climate conference
The primary objective of COP28 revolves around reducing or completely eliminating the use of fossil fuels, such as oil and gas.
The head of the COP and the CEO of Adnoc is Sultan al-Jaber.
The recent evaluation of data from the oil sector indicates that Adnoc is currently undergoing a swift growth.
Rystad Energy, a trusted source of insights for the oil market by various fossil fuel firms and global institutions like the International Energy Agency, provides the data concerning Adnoc.
Rystad utilizes corporate reports, governmental resources, and scholarly studies to forecast upcoming production of oil and gas.
Activists from Global Witness utilized this data to compile a ranking of leading oil producers from the present until 2050.
The UAE secured the position just after Saudi Arabia, currently holding the 12th spot globally.
Rystad stated that the production surge of 42% within this decade will elevate the yield from slightly more than a billion barrels in 2023 to nearly 1.5 billion barrels by 2030.
The information indicates that the rapid growth is anticipated to persist until the 2030s, with output beginning to decrease in the 2040s.
Adnoc's oil production is projected to drop to nearly 850 million barrels annually by 2050, a substantial decrease from the current output of one billion barrels.
Global production is anticipated to decline around the middle of the century.
Bill Hare, a leading researcher at Climate Analytics, expressed that the remarkable increase in Adnoc's anticipated production contradicts everything that we understand is necessary to restrict global warming to 1.5C.
"He contradicted the COP president's personal pledge to make 1.5C the guiding principle of the climate discussions," he further commented.
This quantity of oil and gas would significantly hinder the possibility of restricting the temperature increase to 1.5C.
Even with its total production, Adnoc's output will remain significantly smaller than that of Saudi Arabia's national producer, Aramco, which is projected to produce 101 billion barrels by 2050.
Nonetheless, it would be substantially greater than the combined total of all five "supermajors", which include Shell, BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies, and ConocoPhillips.
The study suggests that by 2050, Adnoc's expanded production will result in over 14 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions. Specialists assert that this accounts for more than 6% of the total global capacity to maintain temperatures below 1.5C.
Fatih Birol, the leader of the International Energy Agency, stated that Adnoc's growth does not align with maintaining global temperatures below hazardous levels.
"No fossil fuel corporation can claim 'I plan to boost my output by x million barrels of oil, while simultaneously asserting that their company's approach aligns with the Paris climate accord'," he stated.
"They both can't function simultaneously," he informed BBC News.
Adnoc stated that the evaluation did not differentiate between the potential for production and the real production.
Frequently, corporations possess the ability to generate an excess amount of oil. However, due to an abundance of it in the market, or constraints imposed on them by the OPEC cartel, they might not fully utilize their production potential.
An Adnoc representative confirmed that they are expanding their production capability from approximately 4.65 million barrels daily to five million barrels daily by 2027. This signifies a boost in production capacity by 7%.
It's crucial to understand that this refers to capacity, not necessarily production. Furthermore, it doesn't represent Adnoc's portion of production.
Adnoc asserts that all energy shift scenarios, such as those proposed by the IEA and Rystad, recognize the necessity for a certain amount of oil and gas to fulfill future energy requirements.
We're generating some of the planet's lowest carbon-emitting oil and gas, and we're cutting our carbon output by a quarter by 2030. A starting investment of $15 billion will be made to minimize our carbon footprint and hasten the expansion of future energy sources like hydrogen, geothermal, and renewable energies.
Global Witness states that they scrutinized "estimated yearly hydrocarbon extraction rates," implying actual production, not the potential for production.
It is claimed that this data can be openly accessed from Adnoc.
The results indicate that regardless of the results of COP28, Adnoc intends to surpass almost all global operators in oil production and significantly expand its output. This is in clear defiance of the scientific agreement that Sultan al-Jaber is required to use as a basis for negotiations in Dubai," stated Patrick Galey of Global Witness.
Numerous uncertainties surround future oil production and consumption, which could impact market supply. Nevertheless, environmentally-focused political figures argue that we should not currently seek out new oil drilling prospects.
As the CEO of a fossil company and President of COP, Sultan al-Jaber needs to set a proper precedent by promising to alter Adnoc's upcoming strategies, according to Bas Eickhout, who is affiliated with the European Parliament's Green Party.
His personal reputation is not the only thing on the line, it will also dictate the triumph or defeat of UAE's leadership at the COP.
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