Russell Wilson and Sean Payton was always going to be a year-to-year relationship. If Wilson took off under Payton, they could live happily together for years to come.
If not, a major change would be on the table.
The Broncos are, at least, hedging their bets on Wilson. The Broncos are benching the quarterback, sources confirmed to Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson and Jori Epstein, leaving open the possibility of moving on this offseason. Wilson’s $37 million salary for 2025 becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2024 league year and is also guaranteed for injury, according to Spotrac. (If Wilson were to suffer a major long-term injury in Week 17 or 18, that $37 million would be guaranteed.) The Broncos want to keep their options open going into the offseason.
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The move was also reported by NFL Media and ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Schefter said it was to spark the offense and see what it has in backup Jarrett Stidham, though that seems to be just part of the story. NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport said the move has to do with the 2025 salary and the injury guarantee. Rapoport said the Broncos are benching Wilson for the final two games, not just this week.
Payton, however, insisted that the move was done largely in an effort to win games now.
“I understand all the speculation and everything that surrounds a move like that,” Payton said on Wednesday afternoon, via 9News Denver. “I can tell you, look, we’re desperately trying to win. Sure, in our game today there are economics and all those other things, but the No. 1 push behind this, and it’s a decision I’m making, is to get a spark offensively.”
Read: Sean Payton demands his QB have an iron grip of his offense. Russell Wilson couldn’t, so he’ll be out of Denver
Payton also backed Stidham, who has made just two starts in his four years in the league. He’ll start on Sunday when the Broncos host the Los Angeles Chargers.
“One of the things we saw when we signed Stidham in the offseason … he’s a guy that I’m anxious to see play,” Payton said. “If I didn’t feel like he gave us the chance to win, we wouldn’t be making that move.”
Wilson responded on Twitter to the news on Wednesday night.
God’s got me.
Looking forward to what’s next.— Russell Wilson (@DangeRussWilson) December 28, 2023
At the very least, the Broncos will keep their options open and not be boxed into Wilson’s 2025 salary being guaranteed due to injury. That sets up a key offseason for the team.
What is Russell Wilson’s future
Wilson hasn’t been bad this season, but he has had some flat spots. That includes a rough start to a bad loss against the New England Patriots in Week 16 that practically eliminated the Broncos from the playoff race.
The Broncos aren’t mathematically eliminated. They have a 7% chance to make it. Sitting Wilson now, with the team’s playoff hopes technically alive, says a lot about the team’s thoughts on Wilson now, in 2024 and beyond.
Moving on from Wilson won’t be easy. There’s the matter of a massive, $85 million dead salary-cap hit if they cut him, though that can be spread out over two years if the Broncos designate him a post-June 1 release.
All eyes were on the Payton/Wilson relationship this season. Wednesday’s big news is a likely verdict on how it will turn out.
Wilson trade backfires
The Wilson trade looks like it will go down in Broncos and NFL infamy.
The team thought it was fixing its longstanding quarterback issues when it traded multiple draft picks and players to the Seattle Seahawks for Wilson prior to the 2022 season. In the end, counting picks and players, the Seahawks got (via the Seattle Times) quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant, defensive lineman Shelby Harris, left tackle Charles Cross, edge rusher Boye Mafe, outside linebacker Tyreke Smith, wide receiver Dareke Young, cornerback Devon Witherspoon and outside linebacker Derick Hall. That’s a massive haul for Seattle.
The Broncos also signed Wilson to a five-year extension worth a little more than $242 million before the start of his first Broncos season, and that’s what turned it from a costly trade into a franchise-changing problem.
Wilson struggled badly in his first Broncos season under head coach Nathaniel Hackett, who was fired before the season was done. Payton was brought in to be the Broncos’ head coach, and there was hope that he could turn around Wilson, a nine-time Pro Bowler.
Wilson hasn’t been bad this season. He has 3,070 yards, 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions, and his 98 passer rating is better than that of some stars, including Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. But the Broncos weren’t convinced that he’s all the way back. It seems very unlikely that the move is due to just wanting to spark the offense and has nothing to do with Wilson’s contract and future.
Wilson’s time with the Broncos could be coming to an end soon. Benching him with the playoffs still a possibility is a clear signal of where the relationship might be headed.
