Fantasy Football NFL Playoffs 2024 Divisional Round DFS: Top value plays, best buys, worst plays for each game

Jan 19, 2024

at

4:34 pm ET

•

14 min read

The Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs brought us some great Fantasy production. And hopefully you profited off of it with your lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Last week, we did good buys and bad buys for each site, and we’ll run it back again for the Divisional Round, with some value picks as well. I’ll also include some player props that I like for each game.

And, if you want to see two lineups that I’ll be using for this weekend, you can go to SportsLine to check those out. Good luck with your DFS lineups, and let’s win some money.

Rashee Rice ($7,800 on FanDuel, $6,800 on DraftKings)

Rice was excellent in his playoff debut against Miami with eight catches for 130 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. That’s now at least seven catches in five of his past seven games, and he has either 100 receiving yards or a touchdown in five of those outings as well. The Bills are beat up defensively, with Christian Benford (knee), Taylor Rapp (calf) and Baylon Spector (back) already ruled out, and we’re still waiting to see the status of Terrel Bernard (ankle), Tyrel Dodson (shoulder), Rasul Douglas (knee) and Taron Johnson (concussion). Depending on who suits up in the secondary, Rice should have the chance for another big game.

Brock Purdy ($7,800 on FanDuel, $6,500 on DraftKings)

Purdy at home is always a good bet except when he’s playing Baltimore — he averaged 309.4 yards in San Francisco in seven games with 14 total touchdowns and seven interceptions — and the Packers defense has been vulnerable to opposing passers of late. Three of the past five quarterbacks against Green Bay have passed for at least 312 yards and two touchdowns (Baker Mayfield in Week 15, Bryce Young in Week 16 and Dak Prescott last week), and Purdy should be able to pick apart this defense in his building.

Jared Goff ($7,600 on FanDuel, $6,300 on DraftKings)

Goff’s best road game this season was at Tampa Bay in Week 6 when he passed for 353 yards and two touchdowns, and now he gets to face the Buccaneers at home. Tampa Bay shut down Jalen Hurts last week, holding him to 250 passing yards and one touchdown (and just 5 rushing yards), but I like Goff in this spot. During the season, the Buccaneers were No. 8 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and Goff is priced right for this potential shootout.

Jordan Love ($7,400 on FanDuel, $6,200 on DraftKings)

Love was exceptional against the Cowboys in the Wild Card round with 272 passing yards and three touchdowns, and he now has averaged 271.1 passing yards in his past 10 games with 25 total touchdowns and just three interceptions over that span. This isn’t an easy matchup at San Francisco, but two quarterbacks in the past four meaningful games against the 49ers (throwing out Week 18 against the Rams) have at least 252 passing yards and two touchdowns. Love is my favorite quarterback play this week.

Isiah Pacheco ($7,500 on FanDuel, $6,400 on DraftKings)

Pacheco had a solid game in the Wild Card round against a good Miami defense with 24 carries for 89 yards and a touchdown, along with one catch for minus-1 yard on one target. He’s now scored a touchdown in five games in a row, and he should be able to have success against this banged-up Buffalo defense. He missed the first game against Buffalo in Week 14 with a shoulder injury, and Jerick McKinnon scored in that matchup. The Bills have also allowed a running back to score in two of their past three games.

Aaron Jones ($7,400 on FanDuel, $6,700 on DraftKings)

I don’t love it for Jones that 49ers defensive tackle Arik Armstead (foot/knee) is back for San Francisco after missing the past five games, but Jones is on fire coming into this matchup. He has four games in a row with at least 111 rushing yards, and he just had 21 carries for 118 yards and three touchdowns at Dallas in the Wild Card round, along with one catch for 13 yards on one target. Jones also has the ability to deliver as a receiver, which might be how he makes an impact in this game, and he has two games in his past five outings with at least four catches.

Baker Mayfield ($7,300 on FanDuel, $6,000 on DraftKings)

Mayfield wasn’t great against Detroit in Week 6 with 206 passing yards, no touchdowns and one interception, but he’s playing much better since then and should stay hot in this matchup at Detroit. He just passed for 337 yards and three touchdowns against Philadelphia, along with 16 rushing yards, and he now has three games with at least 309 passing yards and two touchdowns in his past five outings overall. Detroit has allowed four quarterbacks in a row to pass for at least 345 yards and two touchdowns, and Mayfield will likely be the most rostered quarterback this weekend given his recent production and price.

Zay Flowers ($7,000 on FanDuel, $6,000 on DraftKings)

Mark Andrews (ankle) is out for the Divisional Round against Houston, and Flowers was great down the stretch with Andrews sidelined. Flowers played five games without Andrews, and he had three games with at least eight targets, two games with at least six catches, one game with over 100 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Flowers had nine catches for 78 yards on 10 targets in Week 1 against Houston — with Andrews also out — and I expect him to remain heavily involved in the rematch. He’s an excellent play in this matchup at home.

Chris Godwin ($6,900 on FanDuel, $6,300 on DraftKings)

Godwin had a solid game against the Lions in Week 6 with six catches for 77 yards on seven targets. He just had four catches for 45 yards and a touchdown on five targets against the Eagles in the Wild Card round, and I love this matchup for him in the rematch with Detroit. The Lions were No. 3 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers during the season, and Godwin, Mike Evans and Trey Palmer (see below) could all do some damage against this Detroit secondary.

George Kittle ($6,400 on FanDuel, $5,200 on DraftKings)

Kittle has been amazing at home this season, and hopefully that continues against the Packers. In seven home games, he has 38 catches for 606 yards and five touchdowns on 49 targets, and he has either 100 receiving yards or a touchdown in five games in a row in San Francisco. The Packers just allowed Jake Ferguson to catch 10 passes for 93 yards and three touchdowns on 12 targets in the Wild Card round. And, including the regular season, that’s now eight touchdowns Green Bay has allowed to tight ends since Week 11.

Isaiah Likely ($5,500 on FanDuel, $4,700 on DraftKings)

With Mark Andrews (ankle) ruled out, Likely will likely be the most popular tight end play this week at his price. And he should be worth it. He has five touchdowns in his past five games with Andrews out, and he has two games over that span with five catches for at least 70 yards. David Njoku just had seven catches for 93 yards on 11 targets against Houston in the Wild Card round, and Lamar Jackson should continue to lean on Likely against the Texans at home.

Josh Allen ($9,400 on FanDuel, $8,000 on DraftKings)

Allen had a solid game at Kansas City in Week 14 with 233 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception, along with 32 rushing yards and a score, but you need much more from him at his price to justify playing him this week. The Chiefs finished the regular season No. 4 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and just held Tua Tagovailoa to 199 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception, along with three carries for 25 yards. Allen is obviously much better than Tagovailoa, but he might not produce at a high enough level to roster in the Divisional Round.

Stefon Diggs ($7,500 on FanDuel, $7,000 on DraftKings)

Diggs had seven catches for 52 yards on nine targets against the Steelers in the Wild Card round, and that’s now six games in his past nine outings with 55 receiving yards or fewer. He also has just one touchdown over that span. The Chiefs held Diggs to four catches for 24 yards on 11 targets in Week 14, and I don’t like him at this price in this matchup, even at home.

C.J. Stroud ($7,200 on FanDuel, $6,700 on DraftKings)

I don’t love the matchup for Stroud at Baltimore. He’s coming off a big game against Cleveland with 274 passing yards and three touchdowns, but outdoor games on the road haven’t been ideal for him, including Week 1 against the Ravens. Granted, that was his first NFL start, but he passed for just 242 yards and no touchdowns, with 20 rushing yards. He’s much better since then, but Baltimore’s defense finished No. 3 in the regular season in fewest Fantasy points allowed. The only reason to use Stroud this week is because of his price, and hopefully he can still deliver a quality stat line.

Travis Kelce ($7,100 on FanDuel, $6,000 on DraftKings)

It’s hard to fathom that Kelce hasn’t scored a touchdown in seven games in a row. He had some good games during that stretch, including the Wild Card round against Miami with seven catches for 71 yards on 10 targets, but that also included two drops. And he was solid against Buffalo in Week 14 with six catches for 83 yards on 10 targets. Hopefully, the injuries for the Bills help Kelce this week, but it’s hard to justify using him at this price. There are other tight ends I’d prefer to roster this week.

David Montgomery ($7,000 on FanDuel, $6,100 on DraftKings)

I thought Montgomery was a bad buy in the Wild Card round, and he had a solid game with 14 carries for 57 yards and a touchdown, along with one catch for 11 yards on one target. He’s now scored a touchdown in four games in a row, and if he finds the end zone again this week then he’ll be worth this price. He left the first game against Tampa Bay early in Week 6 with a rib injury, but this is a brutal matchup. The Buccaneers finished the regular season No. 3 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, and D’Andre Swift was held to 10 carries for 34 yards, along with four catches for 32 yards on four targets last week. I’m fine using Jahmyr Gibbs because of his upside, but Montgomery makes me nervous if he fails to score.

Gus Edwards ($6,900 on FanDuel, $5,900 on DraftKings)

In his past three meaningful games (throwing out Week 18 against Pittsburgh), Edwards has a touchdown in each outing. He should be OK if he finds the end zone again this week, but the Texans have allowed just four rushing touchdowns to running backs since Week 10, a span of nine games, including last week. Dalvin Cook is now in the mix for the Ravens, and we’ll see how he impacts Edwards, along with Justice Hill. It could be messy, especially for Edwards if he doesn’t find the end zone.

Rachaad White ($6,700 on FanDuel, $6,500 on DraftKings)

The Lions finished the regular season No. 1 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, and they held White to a miserable game in Week 6 with seven carries for 26 yards and three catches for 12 yards on four targets. Detroit also limited Kyren Williams last week to 13 carries for 61 yards and one catch for 9 yards on one target, although he didn’t finish the game with a broken hand. I’m staying away from White in this matchup, but hopefully he’s involved in the passing game. He does have at least four catches in three of his past four outings.

Devin Singletary ($6,400 on FanDuel, $5,700 on DraftKings)

Singletary had 13 carries for 66 yards and a touchdown and three catches for 4 yards on three targets against the Browns last week, and he also scored a touchdown in Week 18 at Indianapolis. He’s clearly the lead running back for the Texans, but I don’t like this matchup at Baltimore. The Ravens finished the regular season No. 8 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, and Singletary should post a minimal stat line in this matchup on the road.

Dalton Kincaid ($6,200 on FanDuel, $4,800 on DraftKings)

Kincaid had three catches for 59 yards and a touchdown on six targets in the Wild Card round against Pittsburgh, and he now has three games in a row with either a touchdown or 84 receiving yards. Gabe Davis (knee) is out again in the Divisional Round, which means Kincaid should continue to be a prime target for Josh Allen in this matchup. He had five catches for 21 yards on eight targets at Kansas City in Week 14, but I like his outlook better this week at home.

Christian Watson ($5,800 on FanDuel, $4,200 on DraftKings)

It’s really a guessing game of which receiver will step for the Packers on a weekly basis, and last week it was Romeo Doubs at Dallas with six catches for 151 yards and a touchdown on six targets. Watson had one catch for 9 yards on one target, Jayden Reed had no catches on three targets and Dontayvion Wicks had two catches for 25 yards and a touchdown one two targets. I like Watson the best this week because of his price, and he still offers the most upside of this group. Watson missed five games with a hamstring injury prior to last week, so hopefully he’s close to 100 percent for this game at San Francisco.

Khalir Shakir ($5,900 on FanDuel, $3,800 on DraftKings)

Shakir will be popular again this week with Gabe Davis (knee) out, and Shakir did well against the Steelers in the Wild Card round with three catches for 31 yards and a touchdown on three targets. That’s now two games in a row with positive production since he had six catches for 105 yards on six targets in Week 18 at Miami in the game Davis was injured, and hopefully Shakir will stay hot for another game in this matchup with the Chiefs.

Josh Reynolds ($6,100 on FanDuel, $3,700 on DraftKings)

I liked Reynolds last week against the Rams with Sam LaPorta (knee) banged up, and Reynolds delivered with five catches for 80 yards on seven targets. LaPorta should be healthier this week, but Reynolds is still worth a flier given the matchup and his price. He had three catches for 50 yards at Tampa Bay in Week 6, and the Buccaneers finished the regular season at No. 11 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers.

Luke Musgrave ($5,100 on FanDuel, $3,600 on DraftKings)

Musgrave just had three catches for 52 yards and a touchdown on three targets in the Wild Card round at Dallas, and hopefully he can re-emerge as the No. 1 tight end for the Packers ahead of Tucker Kraft. I like Musgrave at his price this week, especially on DraftKings, and he could see an uptick in targets with the Packers likely chasing points on the road.

Jameson Williams ($5,300 on FanDuel, $3,600 on DraftKings)

Williams didn’t do much in the Wild Card victory against the Rams with two catches for 19 yards on two targets, but I like this matchup for him against the Buccaneers. And Williams caught a 45-yard touchdown at Tampa Bay in Week 6 when he finished with two catches for 53 yards and the score on three targets. The thing you should like about Williams, besides his cost and matchup, is that he can win you a tournament with just one big play.

Trey Palmer ($5,200 on FanDuel, $3,500 on DraftKings)

Palmer caught a 56-yard touchdown in the Wild Card round against the Eagles, and he’s now scored a touchdown in two of his past three games. Like Jameson Williams, Palmer can win you a tournament with one big play, and this is a great matchup against the Lions. Detroit finished the regular season No. 3 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, and Palmer is a great value pick at his price.

Cade Otton ($5,300 on FanDuel, $3,500 on DraftKings)

Ravens prop: Isaiah Likely over 34.5 receiving yards (-114)

Likely has at least 40 receiving yards in five of his past six games, and Mark Andrews (ankle) is out.

Packers prop: Christian Watson over 28.5 receiving yards (-114)

Watson only had one catch for 9 yards on one target last week at Dallas, but that was his first game back from a five-game absence with a hamstring injury. He should be healthier now, and he can go over this total with just one reception.

49ers prop: George Kittle over 53.5 receiving yards (-114)

Kittle has been over that total in each of his past five home games and in four of his past five outings overall.

Buccaneers prop: Rachaad White over 3.5 receptions (+112)

White has at least four catches in three of his past four games, and I think he’ll be used in the passing game this week by Baker Mayfield.

Lions prop: David Montgomery under 57.5 rushing yards (-114)

Montgomery has been at 57 rushing yards or fewer in three of his past four games. Only two running backs have at least 58 rushing yards against Tampa Bay in the past six games.

Chiefs prop: Isiah Pacheco over 3.5 receptions (+118)

Pacheco has at least four catches in three of his past five games, and I expect Patrick Mahomes to lean on him in this matchup.

Bills prop: Dalton Kincaid over 40.5 receiving yards (-114) and Kincaid over 4.5 receptions (+112)

Two for one special since Kincaid has at least 59 receiving yards in three games in a row, and I like his chances to make it four in a row with Gabe Davis (knee) out. He also had five catches against the Chiefs in Week 14.