Topline
President Joe Biden has lost a significant share of support in the Democratic stronghold of New York, according to a new survey that shows him beating former President Donald Trump there by just nine points, a warning sign as the president struggles in crucial swing states—and a surprise result that comes as Trump hosts a rally in the deep-blue Bronx.
US President Joe Biden wears sunglasses given to him by supporters after speaking on the PACT Act, … [+] which expands coverage for veterans exposed to toxic substances, at the Westwood Park YMCA in Nashua, New Hampshire, on May 21, 2024. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)
Key Facts
Biden leads Trump 47% to 38% in New York, after beating him there by 23 points in 2020 (or 61% to 38%), according to a May 13-15 Siena College poll of 1,191 registered voters.
Biden is down 20 points in New York City and Trump has gained seven points compared to their 2020 numbers, when 76% voted for Biden and 23% for Trump, the survey found.
The 14-point swing in New York appears to account for undecided voters (7%), those who won’t vote (4%) and those who would cast their ballots for another candidate (3%).
The poll is the latest in a string of recent surveys by Siena College that show Biden’s lead in New York in the high single digits or low double digits.
Biden still holds a sizeable lead in New York compared to national polls, including a May Harvard CAPS/Harris poll that found Trump leading by five points, though Biden’s support has also dipped in the Democratic stronghold of California, where he’s leading Trump by 21 points, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average, after beating him there by 30 points in 2020.
The poll comes as Trump has been spending nearly every day of the past month in his home state for his Manhattan hush money trial—but the results show the outcome of the case wouldn’t change most New Yorkers’ minds about who they’d vote for, with 65% saying it would have no effect on their decision in November, even though 40% believe Trump will be found guilty (35% said they think he’ll be found not guilty and 26% said they didn’t know).
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Surprising Fact
New York hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
What To Watch For
Trump is set to hold a rally in the South Bronx later Thursday in an appeal to Black and Hispanic voters who have strayed from the president since 2020. A May USA Today/Suffolk University poll found 64% of Black voters said they’ll vote for Biden in November, compared to the 92% who voted for him in 2020, according to Pew Research. Meanwhile, 34% of Hispanic voters said they’ll vote for Biden this year, USA Today/Suffolk found, compared to the 59% who voted for him in 2020, according to Pew. The Bronx overwhelmingly voted for Biden over Trump, 84% to 16%, in 2020.
Key Background
Trump and Biden are in a closely contested race headed into November, with polls showing Trump leading Biden by less than one point nationally, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average. Polls in the six crucial swing states Biden won to secure his win in 2020 consistently show Trump beating him by single-digit margins in a majority of those states. A New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll conducted in April and released May 13 found Trump would beat Biden in five of six swing states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada), with the exception of Wisconsin.
Further Reading
Biden Vs. Trump 2024 Election Polls: Trump Leads Biden By 4 Points In Latest Swing State Poll (Forbes)
