(Reuters) -The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.
The topsy-turvy economic environment of the COVID-19 pandemic sidelined those differences, turning Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering U.S. economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes.
The risks are now seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced.
The following chart shows officials’ latest views on the outlook for Fed policy and the economy. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic.
For a breakdown of how Reuters’ counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.
Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Patrick Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Michelle
Harker, Fed Chair, Atlanta Fed Bowman,
Philadelphia permanent President, 2024 Governor,
Fed President, voter: “I don’t voter: Now permanent
2026 voter: think that it is expects one voter: “I
When it comes likely based on rate cut this remain
to a rate cut, the data we have year, in the willing to
“I think we’re that the next fourth quarter, raise the
close, give us move that we down from two federal
a couple of make will be a previously funds rate
meetings.” Feb rate hike … It (April 3, at a
22, 2024 is more likely 2024). “If future
… we hold the September is meeting
policy rate the right time, should the
where it is …” then it’s going incoming
May 14, 2024 to be data
September. If indicate
it’s December, that
that’s the progress
right time, on
that’s going to inflation
be December. If has
it’s February stalled or
that’s the reversed.”
right time, May 17,
it’ll be 2024
February.” May
30, 2024
John Williams, Loretta Mester,
New York Fed Cleveland Fed
President, President, 2024
permanent voter: voter*: “I
Three rate cuts would not think
in 2024 is “a that that’s
reasonable kind still
of starting appropriate,”
point.” (Feb 28, in reference to
2024) “I don’t her previous
feel any expectation for
urgency” to three rate cuts
lower rates.” in 2024 (May
May 30, 2024 20, 2024). “I
need to see a
few more months
of inflation
data that looks
like it is
coming down.”
May 21, 2024
Philip Thomas Barkin,
Jefferson, Vice Richmond Fed
Chair: “It is President, 2024
too early to voter: Lower
tell whether the consumer
recent slowdown inflation in
in the April was
disinflationary “good, but
process will be still not where
long-lasting.” we are trying
May 20, 2024 to get.” May
16, 2024
Michael Barr, Jeffrey Schmid,
Vice Chair of Kansas City Fed
Supervision, President, 2025
permanent voter: voter: “I am
“We will need to prepared to be
allow our patient.” May
restrictive 14, 2024
policy some
further time to
continue its
work.” May 20,
2024
Christopher Neel Kashkari,
Waller, Minneapolis Fed
Governor, President, 2026
permanent voter: voter: Penciled
“In the absence in two 2024
of a significant rate cuts in
weakening in the March. “Many
labor market, I more months of
need to see positive
several more inflation data,
months of good I think, to
inflation data give me
before I would confidence that
be comfortable it’s
supporting an appropriate to
easing in the dial back.” May
stance of 28, 2024
monetary
policy.” May 21,
2024.
Lisa Cook, Lorie Logan,
Governor, Dallas Fed
permanent voter: President, 2026
“Fully restoring voter: “I think
price stability it’s too soon
may take a to really be
cautious thinking about
approach to rate cuts.” May
easing monetary 30, 2024
policy over
time.” March 25,
2024
Adriana Kugler,
Governor,
permanent voter:
“If disinflation
and labor market
conditions
proceed as I am
currently
expecting, then
some lowering of
the policy rate
this year would
be appropriate.”
April 3, 2024
Mary Daly, San
Francisco Fed
President, 2024
voter: Three
rate cuts this
year is “a very
reasonable
baseline.”
(April 2, 2024)
“I’m in a
wait-and-see
mode.” May 9,
2024.
Austan Goolsbee,
Chicago Fed
President, 2025
voter: At the
median Fed
expectation for
three rate cuts
in 2024 (March
25, 2024). “What
everybody is
trying to wrap
their head
around now …
is are we back
to the
traditional
tradeoff between
employment and
inflation?” May
30, 2024
Susan Collins,
Boston Fed
President, 2025
voter: Expects
“in the range of
two” rate cuts
for 2024 (April
11, 2024) “We’re
in a period when
patience really
matters.” May
21, 2024
*Mester hits the Fed banks’ mandatory retirement age in June; if a new Cleveland Fed president is not in place by the Fed’s July 30-31 meeting, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee would vote until one is.
Notes: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, occurred in July 2023. Half of the policymakers as of mid-March thought three rate cuts this year would be appropriate; just as many thought it would be fewer, projections released after their March 19-20 meeting showed. Two of 19 thought there would be none. Alberto Musalem, who started as the St. Louis Fed’s president on April 2, has not made any substantive policy remarks and is not included in the dove-hawk matrix.
All 12 regional Fed presidents debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that are held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chair and vice chairs, have permanent votes on the FOMC.
Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
June ’24 0 1 10 6 1
Apr/May ’24 0 1 10 6 1
March ’24 0 1 11 5 1
Jan ’24 0 2 9 4 1
Dec ’23 0 2 9 4 1
Oct/Nov ’23 0 2 7 5 2
Sept ’23 0 4 3 6 3
June ’23 0 3 3 8 3
March ’23 0 2 3 10 2
Dec ’22 0 4 1 12 2
