The changes ahead of the 2024 season will significantly affect our perspective on the College Football Playoff race. In years past, one loss to the wrong team could wreck a contender’s national title dreams on any random Saturday from September through November. Now, that same loss might only impact a team’s playoff seeding.
The idea of one game dashing a team’s national title dreams inspired me to write about potential chaos teams five years ago, and I’ve done it every year since. While the parameters have changed in 2024, the overall premise is the same.
I look for teams that aren’t widely considered playoff contenders but have the chance to knock off somebody who is and destroy their season. Teams can survive a loss and still make the expanded College Football Playoff, but not all defeats are equal. A loss to another title contender may be forgiven. At the same time, a setback against one of these teams could prove the deciding factor between an at-large berth and pretending to be thrilled about an appearance in the Reliaquest Bowl.
Florida
There has been plenty of talk about how difficult Florida’s schedule is, but there are two ways to look at it. The glass-half-empty view is that the Gators are doomed to a mediocre season. The glass-half-full view is that nobody believes the Gators can win, but they’ll have plenty of chances to destroy somebody’s dreams.
I know which one I’d take if I were in that locker room.
I could simply list the teams the Gators will play this year, but there’s another way to look at this schedule that really drives the point home. Of the 12 teams on Florida’s schedule, eight are currently in the top 20 when it comes to odds to win the national title in 2024. That’s right, 67% of Florida’s schedule is comprised of 40% of the teams people think can win it all.
Whether it’s home games against Miami, Texas A&M, Georgia, LSU and Ole Miss or road dates against Tennessee, Texas and Florida State, the Gators have a chance to play spoiler damn near every Saturday.
Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech was a surprise last year, picking up a couple of upset wins over Miami and North Carolina and hanging tough in a 31-23 loss to Georgia en route to a 7-6 season. That success has Yellow Jackets fans feeling optimistic about the program heading into the season for the first time in a while.
What makes the Jackets a Chaos Team in my eyes is not simply the opportunity but the style of play. Quarterback Haynes King led the ACC in touchdown passes last year with 27 (Drake Maye had only 25), but he also topped the league in interceptions with 16. That’s quite a volatile asset!
That volatility, combined with games against Florida State, Notre Dame, Miami and Georgia (the only road game), makes Georgia Tech a team to watch.
South Carolina
This is the kind of sentence that will lead to an inbox full of angry emails, but South Carolina is here primarily for its bites at the apple more than my faith in its ability to be an above-average team. I see a team like Florida as one that could compete for a playoff spot with an average schedule, and I’m not as confident in the Gamecocks.
But they do have chances!
The Gamecocks get home games against LSU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Missouri this season. They’ll be on the road to face Alabama, Oklahoma and Clemson. If they want to get to a bowl game, they have to win at least one of those games, and winning any of them could destroy a season. All it takes is one perfectly placed Kai Kroeger punt to lead to a stadium full of stunned “surrender cobras”.
UCLA
The two things you need to know about UCLA are that it’s located in Los Angeles, and it has a chance to mess up somebody’s season. The Bruins are something of a forgotten newcomer in the Big Ten this year. While there’s been plenty of talk about Oregon, Washington and USC, UCLA is typically only discussed when you bring up its travel itinerary this season.
They will spend plenty of time flying back and forth across the continent to be sure, and they’ll find themselves across the field from a lot of contenders when they leave the tarmac. Starting Sept. 21, a three-week stretch sees the Bruins on the road for LSU, home for Oregon and back on the road for Penn State.
Things lighten up a bit after that, but the end of the season features games against more potential at-large contenders in Nebraska, Iowa and USC.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin didn’t hire Luke Fickell to go 7-6, nor is that why Fickell took the job. This program views itself as an annual playoff contender in the new college football landscape, but not many see that in the cards in 2024.
However, the Badgers could play their way into the conversation if they make a habit of destroying the seasons of others. The first major test will be a mid-September home date with Alabama. Things pick up again in late October when Badgers will get both Penn State and Oregon in Madison.
That’s three chances to host teams considered prime playoff contenders, as well as road dates with at-large hopefuls like USC, Iowa and Nebraska.
