The race for the next US president is getting stiffer as the election nears. According to recent data, former President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 election have dropped to 44% on Polymarket. Vice President Kamala Harris is now ahead with winning odds of 54%.
This decline reflects a growing skepticism among bettors. Some believe the decline is influenced by Trump’s recent lack of engagement on critical issues like crypto assets, a topic that has gained recognition within the Democratic Party.
Trump Bets Drop as Harris Gains
According to Polymarket data, the “Yes” price for Trump on Polymarket has fallen to 44.2¢, while the “No” price stands at 56¢. This trend mainly suggests that confidence in his campaign is waning.
On #Polymarket, #Harris’s chance in the US Presidential Election surged to 54%, while #Trump’s chance dropped from 72% to 44%.
Trader”serus” is the biggest Yes holder of #Harris on #Polymarket, holding 2,427,229 shares($1.31M), with an unrealized profit of $374K!… pic.twitter.com/Hq7pi0Si3r
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) August 16, 2024
But despite this dip, Trump still boasts the largest volume of predictions, with a staggering $75.6 million wagered on his potential return to the White House. With such backing, he still stands a chance at winning, even as the odds become less favorable.
Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris is gaining ground. Her odds are improving alongside the Democratic Party’s increasing support for virtual currencies.
This rise can be traced to the recent Crypto4Harris event on August 14. At the event, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, along with other key Democrats, publicly endorsed the need for clear crypto regulations.
Schumer’s call for bipartisan efforts to shape the industry’s future aligned with Polymarket users boosted Harris’s standing.
Meanwhile, Harris’s odds have now climbed to 54%, marking her strongest position yet, while Trump’s fell from 72% to 44%. This surge in support is also reflected in the actions of prominent bettors.
One notable figure “Serus,” has made a significant investment in Harris, purchasing over 2.4 million shares at an average price of 38¢ per share.
With the market price now at 54¢, the value of their position has risen substantially, yielding an unrealized profit of nearly $374,000, translating to a 40.08% gain.
Serus is not alone in placing substantial bets on Harris. The total volume of bets on her potential victory has reached $66.9 million, indicating a growing belief in her ability to win the election.
This activity level suggests that Harris is becoming a formidable contender in the eyes of prediction market participants.
Theriot’s Endorsement for Harris
In a related development, J.P. Theriot, co-founder of Uphold, recently became the first top crypto executive to publicly endorse Harris.
In a post on X, Theriot expressed disappointment with Trump’s unfulfilled promises regarding the crypto industry. He further suggested that Harris, being younger and more attuned to emerging technologies, might offer a more promising future for the sector.
(2/8) Today, I’m making a similarly contra-directional, but hopefully equally sound and inevitably correct, announcement: I’d like to be the first crypto Founder and former CEO (that I’m aware of) to endorse Kamala Harris for President.
— JP Thieriot (@JpThieriot) August 1, 2024
Theriot emphasized that his endorsement was a personal decision, not reflective of Uphold’s official stance.
However, Attorney Bill Morgan criticized Theriot’s decision, stating that his public endorsement might lead some crypto enthusiasts to distance themselves from Uphold. Bill also noted that Theriot could have waited to hear Harris’s policies on crypto before publicly endorsing her.
Morgan likened this situation to Uphold’s previous backing of XRP during its legal battle with the SEC. Morgan praised Uphold for its steadfast support of XRP, even during challenging times.
However, he also clarified that Uphold’s support for XRP didn’t involve taking sides against other tokens on the platform.
In contrast, Theriot’s endorsement of Harris, a political figure, might be seen as Uphold taking a stance that could distance some users, especially those with different political views.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article do not constitute financial advice. We encourage readers to conduct their own research and determine their own risk tolerance before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency is a highly volatile, high-risk asset class.
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