Michigan vs. Minnesota prediction, pick, spread, football game odds, where to watch, TV channel, live stream

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A pair of smashmouth Big Ten programs will square off in what figures to be a defense-oriented grinder on Saturday as No. 12 Michigan hosts Minnesota. The Wolverines are coming off a dramatic 27-24 win over USC and will be seeking to reach 2-0 in Big Ten play, while the Golden Gophers look to bounce back from a 31-14 loss to Iowa.

Michigan owns a four-game winning streak in the series, which includes a 52-10 thrashing of the Gophers in Minneapolis last season. But Minnesota has some positive history inside Michigan Stadium to draw upon. In fact, the Gophers’ last three victories over the Wolverines came inside in the building (2014, 2005 and 1986).

Adding another win to that tally will require the Gophers to stop the run better than did against the Hawkeyes in Week 3. Minnesota led 14-7 at halftime but outscored 24-0 after the break behind a punishing Hawkeyes ground game. The Wolverines will look to follow a similar script after leaning heavily on their run game to get past the Trojans.

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Michigan vs. Minnesota: Need to know

Star backs: Michigan running back Kalel Mullings was ranked as a four-star linebacker in the Class of 2020 and spent most of his first three seasons with the Wolverines playing defense. But after auditioning on offense in 2022, he became the team’s No. 3 back during the program’s 2023 national title run. With Blake Corum departed, Mullings has ascended to the top of the running back room. He is averaging 8.1 yards per carry, and his 429 yards through four games far surpass his career total of 253 entering the season. Mullings’ late-career renaissance is a fascinating storyline for the Wolverines, and his defensive background is evident through the bruising manner in which he runs. Minnesota counters with a star running back of its own in Darius Taylor, who tallied 799 yards in just six games last season. He was bottled up against Iowa last week, but he already has four total touchdowns this season.  

Orji experiment: Michigan turned to junior quarterback Alex Orji to start against USC last week, and he got the job done. The former three-star prospect is a limited thrower — he completed just 7 of 12 passes for 32 yards against the Trojans — but took care of the football and made plays with his legs. While the Wolverines are clearly one-dimensional with Orji at quarterback, he enhances that lone dimension in way that makes Michigan difficult to defend. As his starting tenure continues, it will be interesting to see whether coach Sherrone Moore allows Orji more opportunities in the passing game.

Tough stretch: The trip to Michigan is part of a tough stretch to open Big Ten play for the Gophers, who will see no reprieve after Iowa kicked them in the teeth. Following this similarly physical contest at Michigan, the Gophers will host No. 13 USC on Oct. 5 before heading to the west coast to play at UCLA. In total, Minnesota plays seven straight weeks to open the season before getting two bye weeks over the second half of the season.

How to watch Michigan vs. Minnesota live

Date: Saturday, September 28 | Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Michigan Stadium — Ann Arbor, Michigan
TV: Fox | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)

Michigan vs. Minnesota prediction, picks

This is going to be a knockdown, drag out type of fight that requires Minnesota’s defense to be better against the run than it was in a 31-14 loss to Iowa last week. The problem is that Michigan may be even better at pounding the rock than the Hawkeyes. Bottling up Kalel Mullings, Donovan Edwards and Alex Orji for four quarters is a tough ask, and the Wolverines should be able to create separation in the second half with the help of their solid defense. Pick: Michigan -9.5

Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 5? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $2,000 in profit since its inception — and find out.

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