The first College Football Playoff Rankings were released Tuesday, and though there wasn’t much controversy, there were a few tantalizing decisions that could inform how the committee views specific data points in the final month of the season.
The new 12-team format provides more room for error among the undefeated and one-loss teams as they traverse the remaining four weeks of the regular season. Again, there wasn’t much chaos in the initial rankings and we’ve learned over the years nothing matters until the final week (Florida State is and should still be seething on the committee’s 11th hour decision last season).
Let’s take a look at a few of the committee’s decisions in their first set of rankings that, at the very least, prompt some questions, if not necessarily controversy.
Underrated: No. 8 Indiana
Indiana has looked like one of the five best teams in the country and should be closer to that line of demarcation. The Hoosiers are undefeated and have beaten opponents by a combined margin of 296 points, with their closest game decided by 14 points. The problem? Indiana’s strength of schedule is atrocious, ranking 103rd, according to ESPN’s data. The Hoosiers’ strength of record is the worst among the top 12 at 34-45 as well.
With Boise State making the field as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, Indiana would be the No. 9 seed in the CFP today, which means it would have to travel to Tennessee rather than host a first-round playoff game. That’s quite the gut punch for a team that is undefeated and yet sits behind four one-loss teams.
Overrated: No. 24 Missouri
Missouri’s lone impressive win is against Vanderbilt, which did not appear in the committee’s top 25. The Tigers have been bludgeoned on the road by a combined score of 75-10 against No. 14 Texas A&M and No. 11 Alabama, including a 34-0 road loss to the Crimson Tide most recently. They’re averaging fewer than 16 points per game in the SEC and have been incredibly inconsistent week to week against the nation’s No. 26 strength of schedule. Meanwhile, Army, which hasn’t trailed at any point this season (the only team in the FBS that can claim that fact) is ranked at No. 25 behind the Tigers?
Overrated: No. 6 Penn State
Who has Penn State beaten? No one. The Nittany Lions’ strength of record is an abysmal 33-34. Their best win is against Illinois, which is no longer ranked in any poll. The Nittany Lions don’t have many opportunities left to strengthen their resume, so allowing them to float near the top five before facing Washington, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland as other teams above them potentially lose with tougher schedules is a shortsighted move by the committee.
The Nittany Lions should be ranked below Big Ten rival Indiana.
Underrated: No. 9 BYU
This isn’t necessarily an issue, and we’re honestly surprised the committee ranked BYU in the top 10, but we understand the frustration from BYU fans. Five one-loss teams are ranked ahead of the undefeated Cougars, who own wins against No. 13 SMU on the road and against No. 19 Kansas State. Those are fantastic victories, but weighing them down is the overall strength of the schedule. The Cougars’ combined record among opponents is 34-38, and the strength of schedule is 61st, according to ESPN’s data.
Perhaps BYU’s frustration should be aimed at Texas. The one-loss Longhorns’ strength of schedule isn’t much better than the Cougars at No. 54, and they do not own a win against a team currently ranked in the CFP — yet they’re ranked No. 5. Again, this all comes down to “eye test,” based at least on selection committee chairman Warde Manuel’s comments to the media Tuesday night. All the Cougars can do is continue winning and improve their resume. Should they win out and then lose in the Big 12 Championship Game, BYU might still be in the field, too.
