Predicting Juan Soto’s free agency as it nears a conclusion

With the MLB winter meetings just around the corner, Juan Soto’s free agent decision has the attention of the entire sport.

After helping the New York Yankees reach the World Series, Soto is expected to receive one of the richest contracts in baseball history, if not the richest. As the baseball world converges in Dallas starting Sunday, the 26-year-old’s top suitors include the Yankees, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays.

While we wait to find out which team the superstar outfielder chooses, we asked our MLB experts to weigh in on all things Soto: when this year’s No. 1 free agent will sign, whether he will choose to stay in the Bronx or head to a new home, and what will happen next after he makes his decision.

Winter meetings preview: Latest intel from Olney and Passan

Sports When do you think we’ll know Juan Soto’s next team — before, at or after the winter meetings?

Jorge Castillo: The news will trickle out before, but it’ll become official Monday — the first day of the winter meetings — with a news conference on Tuesday.

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll agree with Jorge that it’ll be right around the opening of the winter meetings.

David Schoenfield: Late on Monday, the first day of the winter meetings — with a splashy news conference to follow on Tuesday so Scott Boras can enjoy the spotlight (and get the dominoes rolling on the rest of the offseason, including his other top clients such as Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes and Alex Bregman).

Alden Gonzalez: We need to remember that only one person can truly dictate the timing of this development, and that person, of course, is Juan Soto himself. That being said, indications earlier this week were that we were nearing the end of Soto’s free agency, with a decision expected as early as this weekend. Whether that happens Saturday or Sunday, or trickles into Monday or even later, is impossible to know for sure. But we can be almost certain about this: Soto will have picked his new team before the end of the winter meetings on Thursday. This will certainly not be a repeat of the Bryce Harper free agency.

Sports How confident are you that the Yankees will be able to keep the superstar?

Castillo: Not as confident as I was when the offseason started. I expect Soto’s decision to come down to the Yankees and the Mets, but it sounds like Steve Cohen, the wealthiest owner in baseball, is dead set on signing him and will top any offer. That, in my estimation, makes the other team in New York the favorite. That doesn’t mean the Yankees don’t have a shot. But there’s stiff competition down to the wire.

McDaniel: I’ll go with 55% Mets, 35% Yankees and 10% other. The belief around the league is that the Mets won’t let money be the reason for not landing Soto, but the Yankees very well could. The Yankees got Judge to return by basically matching or coming very close to matching other offers, but it’s unclear what the Yankees will do if the Mets blow their offer out of the water.

Schoenfield: One thing that was said repeatedly at the start of free agency is that the Yankees never let their big players leave in free agency, the implication being that Soto will remain in pinstripes. This is mostly accurate — but not completely accurate. They re-signed Aaron Judge a couple years ago, of course, and signed Derek Jeter early on so he never reached free agency until late in his career (the Yankees re-signed him). Mariano Rivera never left. But Robinson Cano did, although that was back in 2014. The point is just because Judge re-signed, it doesn’t mean Soto will. The vast majority of top free agents do not return to the same team, and remember that Judge probably took a slight discount to stay in New York. I don’t think Soto will do that, so my confidence level is low.

Gonzalez: It seems as if any industry person you speak with these days almost expects Soto to be a Met, which, if you take a step back, is pretty wild. The Yankees don’t typically lose players like this. Not 26-year-old superstars they’re trying desperately to bring back. Not coming off a World Series appearance. Not to the Mets. It speaks to the impact of Cohen’s deep wallet, and his ability to overwhelm even the wealthiest owners with massive contract offers. But I’m not ready to count the Yankees out just yet. Soto’s first season in the Bronx could not have gone any better (except for maybe that fifth inning). The Yankees are one of the biggest brands in sports, in an environment he clearly loves playing in, and a team that would make him absurdly wealthy. I’ll believe the Mets are stealing him from the Yankees when I see it.

Sports If Soto doesn’t return to the Yankees, which team seems most likely to land him?

Castillo: The Mets, for the two reasons spelled out above: They really want him, and they have the most money to spend.

McDaniel: I’ll also go with the Mets, based on what I said above. It isn’t even clear yet who the real third-most likely team is, with the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers all in the mix, presumably in that order of likelihood to land Soto, but I’m not confident in that.

Schoenfield: It’s hard to imagine the Mets being outbid — and, if it matters, Soto will get to be The Man with the Mets (with apologies to Francisco Lindor). And while Mark Vientos and maybe Francisco Alvarez are up-and-coming young players, they’re not franchise-headlining-type players. With Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Alonso (if the Mets re-sign him) in their 30s, the Mets need a superstar player entering his age-26 season to build around.

Gonzalez: I agree with everything that has been written and still believe it will come down to what basically all of us expected when this process began — Yankees or Mets. But the three other known finalists — the Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox — all made competitive offers, presumably north of $600 million. And if I’m picking one dark horse here, I’ll go with the Red Sox, another major-market team with a fellow Dominican star in Rafael Devers and cash to burn.

Sports What will be the total value of Soto’s contract?

Castillo: A year ago, when the Yankees acquired Soto, $500 million seemed like the ceiling for him. Then, this summer, while Soto dazzled in the Bronx, whispers of $600 million surfaced. By the end of the season, exceeding $600 million seemed very possible. Now there are rumors of $700 million, if not more. Makes sense. Soto’s combination of age — he’s still just 26 years old — and hitting ability hasn’t been seen in free agency since Alex Rodriguez in 2000. Add big-market bidders and competitive owners, and you have a bidding frenzy. My guess increased from $500 million to a touch over $600 million in recent weeks. It has since increased some more. But I’m going to stop a bit short of $700 million, which would seemingly require deferrals. My guess is 13 years, $650 million without deferrals for an even $50 million per season. That would set the records for AAV and present-day value, eclipsing Shohei Ohtani’s deal just a year later.

McDaniel: I agree with Jorge that it seems like Soto will easily clear $600 million. My final projection was $611 million, and I would move that up slightly now, maybe $630 million? The real question is whether Boras and Soto want to clear $700 million as a nominal amount and use deferrals to get there. I think there’s a roughly coin-flip chance he will be offered that, but we don’t know the priorities the Soto camp has when it comes down to the final terms of the deal.

Schoenfield: $700 million? I wouldn’t do it at that price, but how often does a 26-year-old hitter of this caliber reach free agency? As Jorge said, the last one was Rodriguez after the 2000 season. Even Bryce Harper wasn’t really on this consistent level.

Gonzalez: My guess is that this deal stretches to 15 years, taking Soto into his age-41 season, as a means to get the guarantee beyond $700 million, somehow topping what Shohei Ohtani got from the Dodgers last offseason. I suspect Soto’s contract will have some deferrals in it, perhaps enough to push the average annual value for tax purposes below Ohtani’s $46 million, given the additional five years. But Boras will be able to gloat about the longest free agent contract for the highest dollar amount in baseball history.

Sports What move do you expect to happen next when Soto signs?

Castillo: Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, the two top starting pitchers remaining in free agency, should quickly come off the board. The Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays — four of the five teams that we know have made Soto offers — are very interested in top-tier starting pitching. Whichever clubs don’t add Soto will have money to spend in that department.

McDaniel: Boras’ clients have been flying off the board this winter, landing five of the top six guarantees thus far, and all of them have been pitchers. That’s partly because making pitchers wait until late in the winter has a much higher potential cost (Blake Snell’s and Jordan Montgomery’s slow starts last spring after late contracts) than it does for hitters, and also because Boras has so many clients that he needs to get the ones with suitable offers off his plate to focus on the ones with tougher markets.

Sean Manaea and Max Scherzer join Burnes as the notable Boras pitchers left in free agency, so I’d bet one of them signs quickly to continue the trend. I also assume the $50 million-plus position player market gets moving once Soto is off the board, with talks for Christian Walker, Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, and Willy Adames heating up; I’ll bet one or two of them sign within a week or so of Soto. Nobody wants to be unsigned in February unless their market truly isn’t coming together as expected, so signing a good deal before Christmas is the goal of most free agents and their representatives.

Schoenfield: Alonso seems like he could go quick, especially since the Yankees also need a first baseman. The Mets might still want him, the Yankees will need a hitter if they don’t get Soto, and if neither team gets Soto, there could be a fun bidding war to land Alonso.

Gonzalez: My expectation is that more pitchers will quickly come off the board — there’s still a lot of them available, but also a lot of need throughout the industry — but one position player I’d be looking at is Adames. If he truly is willing to play third base, Adames stands as an obvious pivot for the Yankees or Mets. And whichever one of those teams misses out on Soto will be scrambling to replace him with other top-tier free agents. Adames stands out above the rest.