TikTok’s turbulent year in the U.S. barely rattled marketers — until now. As the app enters its final countdown, marketers are taking the ban more seriously than ever because it’s looking increasingly like TikTok, at least in its current guise, is on borrowed time.
Earlier this month, the app’s U.S. prospects hit a new low. A federal appeals court ruled that national security concerns outweigh First Amendment protections, forcing ByteDance to divest TiKTok if it wants to remain in the market.
Although TikTok plans to appeal, there’s no guarantee that the Supreme Court will take the case. Historically the court defers to Congress on national security matters, and a bipartisan coalition has framed TikTok as a risk to Americans’ data privacy and a potential tool for manipulating its powerful recommendation algorithms.
In the days that have followed, marketers have been grappling with an unsettling reality: the TikTok they know is likely on its way out.
As Jason Loomis, svp and head of media at VaynerX company, The Sasha Group, explained: “If they [U.S. lawmakers] pull the plug, we have contingency plans on how we’ll spend those dollars, what channels we’ll start to move to.”
A Jan. 19 ban would leave TikTok on existing mobile devices but unavailable for download from app stores. Without updates, the app would eventually stop functioning. And if ByteDance sells to an American buyer, it’s highly unlikely the prized algorithm would come with it, leaving TikTok a hollow version of its former self.
For marketers, the shift is stark. Backup strategies they never thought they’d need are now front and center. What once seemed like an extreme contingency is quickly becoming the new reality.
Colleen Fielder, group vp of social and partner of marketing solutions at Basis Technologies, for example, said her team is making contingency plans for any campaigns booked on TikTok past the pending ban date of Jan. 19, 2025.
Ultimately, these contingency plans are a media planning exercise. Marketers are using tools like media marketing mix modeling to figure out how to reach TikTok audiences elsewhere.
“We’re considering Snapchat, IG Reels and YouTube Shorts as strong alternatives,” she said. “Meta and Pinterest are being considered for anything with a shopping focus. For those that go live on TikTok currently, we do not see any reason to pause in advance of the ban going into place.”
It’s a similar perspective shared by Nathan Jun Poekert, chief marketing officer of creative agency General Idea. “Investing in an upfront agreement is just not strategically sound right now,” he explained. “I encourage all CMOs not to do anything as a knee jerk reaction, but to put together contingency plans for every possible outcome.”
Broadly, those outcomes fall into two categories: option one: TikTok has managed to pause the legal process as it waits to hear from the Supreme Court. Option two: TikTok is banned outright on Jan. 19 and it disappears on app stores. Option 3: TikTok is in the process of being sold off, and has been given a deadline extension.
“[Clients’] Budgets have been allocated, but we have contingency plans outlined for clients should the ban go through,” confirmed Shamsul Chowdhury, evp paid social at Jellyfish. “Given their audience overlap, the biggest beneficiaries would be Instagram and Snap.”
TikTok’s message to marketers
Despite the uncertainty, TikTok’s own execs are urging marketers to stay the course. Their message: keep calm and keep spending.
“TikTok confirmed with us [last week] that their advertising offering and capabilities will not be impacted for the remainder of 2024 and will continue to be available for the foreseeable future, pending the outcome of the injunction request,” said Fielder.
But as Jan. 19 looms, it’s clear that many marketers are already looking beyond the app’s uncertain future.
“They’ve [TikTok reps] been told to keep communicating business as usual,” said one source familiar with the internal dialogue. “If their clients ask about it, they’ve been told to say: ‘we believe we will be able to carry on business as usual’.”
Even TikTok partners have been on the receiving end of the same stoic messaging. “They haven’t provided any official communications to us as partners, or even acknowledged the shifts in the landscape,” said one exec from a TikTok partner, who preferred to remain anonymous.
Still, marketers remain relatively unfazed — or as unfazed as one can be in these circumstances. Platforms rise and fall, and threats of bans have become a regular feature of the digital landscape. For marketers, planning, pivoting and hedging against such disruptions is just part of the job now.
As Poekert pointed out, the CPMs and the performance of TikTok is not too different from other existing social platforms right now, though he didn’t share specific figures or metrics. In other words, is the TikTok ban inconvenient? Sure. But will the entire social media landscape implode as a result? Not even close.
A ticking clock
Beneath TikTok’s stoic messaging, signs of tension are emerging — execs there are concerned about their future, and some have even left, according to two sources familiar with the situation. How long this calm front holds — and how it affects the app’s relationship with marketers — remains to be seen. With Jan. 19 approaching, the countdown to TikTok’s uncertain future has officially begun.
“They’ve been acting as if it’s business as normal for pretty much all year, but it clearly isn’t,” said Jasmine Enberg, vp and principal analyst, social media and creator economy at eMarketer. “I believe behind the scenes they have been much more worried and scrambling than it might outwardly seem. It’s really not looking good for TikTok, right now.”
https://digiday.com/?p=563356
