The odds for the College Football Playoff’s first-round are not particularly tight: Each is more than a touchdown with Texas laying 11.5 points at home vs. Clemson marking the biggest spread. Nevertheless, the lines suggest one-score games throughout, which will be great television (and though last year’s CFP seminfinals were bangers, usually they had not been very good).
This is going to be an awesome foray into the expanded 12-team CFP era because, true to the 2024 season, we think each team has a chance to make noise.
With the help of data from TruMedia, these are the matchup advantages each team can hang its hat on in the first-round games.
(10) Indiana at (7) Notre Dame
When: 8 p.m. ET on Dec. 20 (ESPN, ABC)
Where: Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana
Winner plays: (2) Georgia in Sugar Bowl
Indiana: Natural pressure
Indiana’s defense thrives by generating pressure on the quarterback without relying on blitzing. With a 39% QB pressure rate, ranking third in the nation, the Hoosiers disrupt opposing offenses while maintaining a solid secondary. Notre Dame, despite a strong offensive line, struggles under quick pressure, ranking 129th in average time to pressure allowed at 2.41 seconds.
| Metric | IND Defense | ND Offense |
|---|---|---|
| QB Pressure % | 39% (3rd) | 26% (55th) |
| Avg Time to Pressure | 2.40 sec (10th) | 2.41 sec (129th) |
Notre Dame: ‘Middle 8’ execution
The Fighting Irish excel in controlling the “Middle 8” – -the last four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half. At home, Notre Dame has outscored opponents 52-0 in this critical stretch, leveraging their disciplined play to swing momentum. In contrast, Indiana has struggled on the road during this span, posting a -5-point margin.
| Metric | IND (Road) | ND (Home) |
|---|---|---|
| Points Scored | 19 (70th) | 52 (13th) |
| Points Allowed | 24 (T-59th) | 0 (T-1st) |
| Points Margin | -5 (T-66th) | +52 (2nd) |
Notre Dame vs. Indiana: Key advantages for each team in first-round College Football Playoff game
(11) SMU at (6) Penn State
When: 12 p.m. ET on Dec. 21(TNT/MAX)
Where: Beaver Stadium in State College, Pennsylvania
Winner plays: (3) Boise State in Fiesta Bowl
SMU: Jennings thrives in chaos
SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings has been a model of efficiency under pressure this season. Ranking second in the FBS with a 156.4 passer efficiency rating when pressured, Jennings thrives in chaos. His ability to deliver in these situations could neutralize Penn State’s hellacious defensive front, which generates pressure 38.5% of the time, ranking 14th nationally.
| Metric | FBS Rank |
|---|---|
| Pass Efficiency | 156.4 (2nd) |
| Yards/Attempt | 9.8 (2nd) |
| Pass TD | 8 (T-2nd) |
| Pass Yards | 846 (3rd) |
| Completion % | 52.3% (10th) |
Penn State: Warren could shred
SMU’s defense has allowed 627 receiving yards to tight ends this season, ranking 129th in the FBS. Penn State’s Mackey Award-winning tight end Tyler Warren is primed to exploit this weakness. Warren holds the Big Ten record for receiving yards by a tight end in a single season and ranks second nationally in that category.
| Metric | Tyler Warren | SMU Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 88 (3rd) | 56 (130th) |
| Receiving Yards | 1,062 (2nd) | 627 (129th) |
| Receiving TD | 6 (T-6th) | 7 (T-117th) |
Penn State vs. SMU: Key advantages for each team in first-round College Football Playoff game
(12) Clemson at (5) Texas
When: 4 p.m. ET on Dec. 21 (TNT/MAX)
Where: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas
Winner plays: (4) Arizona State in Peach Bowl
Clemson: Klubnik loves zone
Texas relies on zone coverage for 78% of its defensive snaps, ranking 21st nationally in usage. This plays directly into Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik’s strengths. Klubnik has thrown 21 touchdown passes against zone coverage this season, the most in the FBS.
| Metric | FBS Rank |
|---|---|
| Pass TD | 21 (1st) |
| Completions | 206 (12th) |
| Pass Yards | 2,491 (12th) |
| Pass Efficiency | 154.7 (15th) |
Texas: Explosives in chunks
For all the grief Ewers gets, Texas does thrive on explosive passing plays, ranking third in the FBS with 65 completions of 20+ yards. This could spell trouble for Clemson, whose defense has allowed 41 such plays, ranking T-92nd nationally. Texas’ ability to rack up chunk plays will be a big factor — and it would be especially nice for the Longhorns if they could house one or two of those explosives, considering the recent red zone issues.
| Metric | Clemson DEF | Texas OFF |
|---|---|---|
| 20+ Yd Pass Plays | 41 (T-92nd) | 65 (3rd) |
| Pass TD | 21 (T-95th) | 34 (T-3rd) |
Texas vs. Clemson: Key advantages for each team in first-round College Football Playoff game
(8) Tennessee at (9) Ohio State
When: 8 p.m. ET on Dec. 20 (ABC/ESPN)
Where: Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio
Winner plays: (1) Oregon in Rose Bowl
Tennessee: Stout run ‘D’
The Volunteers have also excelled at stopping the run, allowing just 99.6 yards per game, ranking 8th in the FBS. Ohio State’s rushing offense, averaging 169.2 yards per game (59th), faces a tough challenge in breaking through Tennessee’s front line. The Buckeyes have two household names at running back in Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, but their offensive line, which lost two starters to season-ending injuries, puts them at a disadvantage here.
| Metric | TENN Defense | OSU Offense |
|---|---|---|
| Rush Yards/Game | 99.6 (8th) | 169.2 (59th) |
Ohio State: Comfy at home
The Buckeyes have been nearly impenetrable against the pass at home, allowing just 105.0 passing yards per game, the best mark in the FBS. Tennessee’s passing attack, averaging 197.4 yards per game in road/neutral environments (92nd), faces a steep uphill battle.
| Metric | TENN Offense away | OSU Defense at home |
|---|---|---|
| Pass Yards/Game | 197.4 (92nd) | 105.0 (1st) |
Ohio State vs. Tennessee: Key advantages for each team in first-round College Football Playoff game
SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for 10 outright upsets during college football’s bowl and playoff season. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates every matchup 10,000 times.
