Mondelēz International’s earnings per share (EPS) have been downgraded by some analysts following cocoa price worries
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Hope for a cocoa price slump is dwindling as commodity analysts predict a price-boosting run on the brown stuff.
That’s despite Mondelēz International bosses hinting in the summer at easing pressure as harvest predictions aired on the positive side.
Also read → Mondelēz hints cocoa cost positivity as it hikes product prices
Financial analysts, however, have reacted negatively following cocoa price hike indications, despite a period of settlement.
Cocoa prices rocketed at the beginning of 2024, moving from $4,400 per tonne to $12,000 per tonne in April, before shrinking to $7,000 per tonne just a month later.
Businesses were expecting a strong cocoa pod harvest, however, a shortfall was now predicted, writes Andurand Capital Management founder and chief investment officer Pierre Andurand in the FT.
The pod deficit, combined with an expected rise in demand, would contribute towards higher cocoa costs.
When will cocoa prices come down?
In September, at the end of its third-quarter, Mondelēz bosses hinted at reduced cocoa prices.
Cocoa prices had come down “quite a bit from most recent historical highs”, Mondelēz CFO Luca Zaramella said during an investors briefing in September.
Africa’s crop would be “quite good” this year, with yields expected to be up around “20% to 25% from what happened last year”, he added.
However, TD Cowen – a multinational investment bank – managing director Robert Moskow lowered Mondelēz’s earnings per share expectations by 3c to $3.42.
How will cocoa prices impact chocolate businesses?
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“After taking a closer look at Mondelēz’s exposure to cocoa inflation and FX headwinds, we lower our 2024 EPS and lower 2025 and 2026 to $3.26 and $3.59 versus consensus of $3.44 and $3.84“, he said.
Analysts assumed “peak cocoa costs” would hit Mondelēz’s profit and loss in its final financial quarter this year, which would impact its H1 2025 financials due to price lags in Europe.
“To arrive at this forecast, we assume Mondelēz hedges its cocoa costs on a nine-month forward basis,“ continued Moskow.
“If so, their cocoa costs would increase 100% in Q4 2024 and 80% in 2025, consistent with management’s guidance for peak cocoa inflation Q4 2024.”
However, Mondelēz would likely deliver higher earnings in 2026, but only if the price hikes pushed onto consumers this year were held and cocoa prices came down, he predicted.
